orto-skills/build/orto-meteo-decisioni/SKILL.md

---
name: orto-meteo-decisioni
description: Analyze weather forecast and generate operational task modifications (irrigation adjustments, task rescheduling, alerts). Use when: (1) obtaining 7-day forecast for garden location, (2) calculating effective rainfall and water deficit, (3) deciding irrigation skip/delay based on rain, wind, frost, heat, (4) tagging calendar tasks for meteo-driven rescheduling. Outputs: Weekly meteo briefing (markdown) with zone-specific irrigation decisions, task reschedule recommendations, frost/heat/wind alerts.
---

# Orto Meteo Decisioni — Weather-Based Operational Decisions

Fetch weather forecast, calculate water balance, generate irrigation adjustments and task rescheduling recommendations.

## When to Use This Skill

- **Weekly:** Every Monday, generate meteo brief for week ahead
- **Critical task:** Before trapianto, trattamenti, or high-water-need operations
- **Adaptive scheduling:** Real-time OR 7-day lookahead (no, not intra-day)
- **Integration:** Link with orto-calendario (meteo_defer tasks), orto-irrigazione (zone decisions)

## Process

### Phase 1: Fetch Weather Forecast

**Data source:** wttr.in (or open-meteo fallback, no API key needed)

**Forecast period:** 7 days ahead (Monday-Sunday)

**Extract:**
- Daily Tmax, Tmin
- Precipitation (mm, probability)
- Wind speed (kn)
- Relative humidity (%)
- Frost risk (T < 0°C nights)

### Phase 2: Calculate Water Balance per Zone

**For each zone, compute:**

```
Effective rainfall (mm) = Precip_mm × 0.85  (factor for soil infiltration)

Water deficit (mm) = Zone_water_class_daily_need (mm) - Effective_rainfall (mm)

Decision rule:
IF Effective_rainfall >= 70% of zone need:
  → SKIP irrigation (rain sufficient)
  → Delay 24-48h if rain during application hours

ELIF Effective_rainfall >= 30%:
  → REDUCE runtime 30-50%
  
ELSE:
  → KEEP baseline OR increase (heat alert)
```

### Phase 3: Evaluate Risk Factors

| Factor | Threshold | Action |
|--------|-----------|--------|
| **Frost** | T < 0°C night | Alert; defer tender transplant +3-7 gg; irrigate morning (protect roots) |
| **Heat stress** | T > 35°C day | Force irrigation (priority over rain forecast); increase frequency |
| **Wind** | > 5 kn | Defer foliar sprays, transplant (plants stress); reduce sprinkler irrigation |
| **High wind** | > 8 kn | DEFER critical transplant, trattamenti |
| **Heavy rain** | > 20mm/24h | Alert flood risk (esp. if poor drainage); check field |
| **Hail** | Hail alert | Immediate stop irrigation; assess damage post-hail |

### Phase 4: Generate Weekly Brief

**Output:** `dati/meteo/dati_meteo_giornalieri.md`

```markdown
# Meteo Brief — Week [WK] ([DATE_RANGE]) — [ORTO_ID]

**Location:** [PROVINCIA], [REGIONE], [LAT], [LON]  
**Zone climatica:** [ZONE]  
**Data forecast:** [RETRIEVED_DATE]  

---

## Riepilogo Settimanale

| Giorno | Tmax | Tmin | Precip (mm) | Vento (kn) | Allerta |
|--------|------|------|-------------|-----------|---------|
| Lun | 22 | 14 | 0 | 3 | ✓ OK |
| Mar | 24 | 15 | 2 | 4 | ✓ OK |
| Mer | 20 | 12 | 8 | 5 | ⚠️ VENTO |
| Gio | 19 | 10 | 12 | 2 | ✓ OK (pioggia) |
| Ven | 23 | 13 | 0 | 3 | ✓ OK |
| Sab | 26 | 16 | 0 | 4 | ✓ OK |
| Dom | 28 | 18 | 1 | 6 | ⚠️ CALDO + VENTO |

**Tendenza:** Instabile martedì-giovedì (pioggia intermittente), then dry + warm weekend

---

## Decisioni per Zone Irrigue

### ZONA ALTA (A1 — Pomodoro, Basilico)

**Baseline:** Daily 7am + 5pm, 60 min each (summer schedule)

**Meteo-adjusted schedule:**

| Giorno | Baseline | Precip | Effective | Decision | New Schedule | Nota |
|--------|----------|--------|-----------|----------|--------------|------|
| Lun | 7am+5pm | 0 mm | 0 mm | Irrigate full | 7am 60min, 5pm 60min | ✓ |
| Mar | 7am+5pm | 2 mm | 1.7 mm | Irrigate reduced | 7am 45min, skip 5pm | Pioggia leggera |
| Mer | SKIP | 8 mm | 6.8 mm | **SKIP** | **SKIP** | Vento 5kn (no spray) |
| Gio | SKIP | 12 mm | 10.2 mm | **SKIP** | **SKIP** | Pioggia adeguata, vento cala |
| Ven | 7am+5pm | 0 mm | 0 mm | Irrigate full | 7am 60min, 5pm 60min | Post-pioggia, recuperare |
| Sab | 7am+5pm | 0 mm | 0 mm | Irrigate full | 7am 60min, 5pm 60min | ✓ |
| Dom | 7am+5pm | 1 mm | 0.85 mm | 🔥 CALDO ALERT | 6am 80min, 5pm 80min | T > 28°C, vento 6kn (monitor) |

**Summary:**
- **Water saved Wed-Thu:** 240 min (pioggia sufficient)
- **Water added Dom:** +40 min (heat stress override)
- **Vento impact:** Mer risky (defer), Dom monitor

---

### ZONA MEDIA (A2 — Cavolo, Lattuga)

**Baseline:** 3-4x/week, 40-50 min per session

**Decision:** Baseline ridotto mercoledì (pioggia). Giovedì skip. Normale altri giorni.

---

### ZONA BASSA (A3 — Carota, Cipolla)

**Baseline:** 2-3x/week, 20-30 min (low water need)

**Decision:** Skip Wed-Thu (pioggia sufficiente). Cipolla in maturazione → ulteriore riduzione (evitare marciume).

---

## Task Rescheduling (Meteo-Sensitive Calendar)

**Calendar reference:** `dati/calendario/calendario_operativo.md`

### ⚠️ TASK CRITICA QUESTA SETTIMANA

**[Se presente] Task 16.1 — Trapianto Pomodoro**

Original date: Martedì (19 Apr)

**Meteo check:** Vento martedì 4 kn (OK), mercoledì 5 kn (borderline)

**Decision:** PROCEED martedì (vento tollerabile). Proteggere piantine da vento (wind break se needed).

**If trapianto fosse mercoledì:** RINVIARE +2 gg (vento 5+ kn non ideale; piante freshe soffrono)

---

### Task con meteo-tag METEO_DEFER

| Task | Scheduled | Meteo Issue | Action |
|------|-----------|-------------|--------|
| Trattamento fogliare (se presente) | Mercoledì | Vento > 5 kn | RINVIARE Venerdì |
| Concimazione (se presente) | Mercoledì | Pioggia imminente | POSTPONE Giovedì post-pioggia |

---

### Task con meteo-tag METEO_SKIP (None per questa settimana)

---

## Allerte Importanti

### 🟡 ATTENZIONE VENTO (Mercoledì)

**Vento 5 kn mercoledì.** 

- NO trattamenti fogliari (spray non effective, drift)
- NO trapianti se piantine sensibili
- Irrigazione: Preferire goccia a spray
- Consiglio: Posticipare attività outdoor critiche

---

### 🔥 ALLERTA CALDO (Domenica)

**T max 28°C, possibile > 30°C domenica.**

- **Irrigazione:** Aumentate di +30% (heat stress override)
- **Mulching:** Check pacciamatura è adequata
- **Ombra:** Se lattuga estiva in bolognaise, aumentate copertura
- **Orario:** Irrigare presto mattina (6am) + sera (6pm), evitare ore 12-15 (radiazione massima)

---

### ✅ OK — Pioggia Prevista (Gio)

**Pioggia 12 mm giovedì** → SKIP irrigazione
- Effective rainfall ~10 mm (copre 70% zone MEDIA/ALTA)
- Opportunità: Ridurre pressione sull'acqua
- Nota: Post-pioggia (venerdì), monitorare marciume se drenaggio scadente

---

## Consigli Operative

**Lunedì:**
- [ ] Mantenere irrigazione baseline (niente pioggia)
- [ ] Check manometro pressione sistema
- [ ] Preparare strumenti (se trattamento necessario venerdì)

**Martedì:**
- [ ] Monitorare vento (possibile irrigazione ridotta se >5kn)
- [ ] Irrigazione 7am + 5pm (schedule normale)

**Mercoledì:**
- [ ] **SKIP irrigazione** (pioggia + vento)
- [ ] NO trattamenti fogliari (vento)
- [ ] Monitorare pioggia cumulo (potrebbe meno di forecast)

**Giovedì:**
- [ ] **SKIP irrigazione** (pioggia adequate)
- [ ] Check drenaggio post-pioggia (evitare ristagno)

**Venerdì:**
- [ ] **Riprendere irrigazione** full (baseline restored)
- [ ] Eseguire trattamenti fogliare se posticipato mercoledì (condizioni OK)
- [ ] Monitorare umidità suolo sensore (dovrebbe calare post-pioggia)

**Sabato:**
- [ ] Irrigazione baseline (sole, no pioggia)

**Domenica:**
- [ ] **AUMENTATE IRRIGAZIONE** (caldo, 28°C+)
- [ ] Controllare temperature (T > 30°C = heat stress risk)
- [ ] Cercare ombra naturale per lattuga/cavolo

---

## Forecast Confidence & Updates

**Confidence this forecast:** 0.82 (Day 1-3 high, Day 5-7 medium)

**Update schedule:**
- Monday 8am: Full 7-day
- Thursday 6pm: 2-day update (Fri-Sat precision)
- Real-time: Critical alerts (frost, hail, extreme wind)

**Source:** wttr.in (UK MetOffice data); fallback open-meteo (OM)

---

## Historical Notes (Optional)

*Optional tracking field: Did actual weather match forecast? Use for calibration.*

- Last week forecast rain Wed, actual Thu: -1 day error
- Confidence margins improving with calibration data

---

## References

- `references/meteo_soglie.md` — Threshold values, crop sensitivities, wind/frost/heat impact

## Assumptions

1. Internet connection available (meteo API fetch)
2. Garden location lat/lon accurately registered
3. Forecast data is 7-day rolling (daily refresh)
4. Effective rainfall = precip × 0.85 (standard infiltration factor)

## Validation Checklist

- ✓ Forecast data retrieved and parsed
- ✓ Water balance calculated per zone
- ✓ Task rescheduling recommendations coherent with calendario
- ✓ Allerte triggered if thresholds exceed (frost, heat, wind, rain)
- ✓ Output markdown is actionable (daily decisioni clear)

---

**Skill: orto-meteo-decisioni** | Version 1.0 | Status: Production-Ready